According to this, Bernie Sanders has a slim lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa. That is significant.
Sanders had been leading in New Hampshire for some time, but that poll is easily dismissed because the good senator is from Vermont, a neighboring state. (I would counter: New Hamprshire has been familiar with Hillary Clinton since 1992. It is not as if they don’t know who she is.)
It’s all about the trend-lines. Sanders has been surging. Clinton has been dipping.
Now I think it is incumbent on Sanders supporters to bring their A-game to that 12% that would prefer Joe Biden. If Biden does not run, they have to break somewhere. It is difficult to know exactly how they will break: will they break for the side of Biden that emphasizes establishment, DNC-inspired politics? Or will they break for the candidate that similarly emphasizes his working class roots and maintains a deeply populist streak?
Time will tell. If Joe Biden does run, however, that is clearly a win for Bernie Sanders. Biden will split the establishment DNC vote with Hillary Clinton enough to allow Sanders to galvanize the progressive wing and eek out a slim victory. This is probably exactly why Joe Biden won’t run— the DNC leaders are all too aware of this possibility, and have possibly told him already, no go, Joe. Biden has been seen praising Bernie Sanders, and has been making it known that he is, of course, still grieving the loss of his son, which is a graceful, face-saving way for him to bow out at this time.
In the meantime…
Down goes Frazier! Sanders leads in Iowa!